Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
